Mario Draghi is not a candidate. Nevertheless, the Italian is repeatedly touted as President of the next EU Commission. The personality is not likely – but it is certainly possible. Because the former head of the European Central Bank has a powerful advocate.
For months, Italian media have been spreading scenarios in which Mario Draghi will become President of the new EU Commission after the European elections. Incumbent Ursula von der Leyen actually wants to keep her office. And Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is keeping a low profile when it comes to Draghi.
The media speculating about Draghi is primarily those who are critical of Meloni's government. The US news agency Bloomberg and the European news portal Euractiv have now joined the speculation. Accordingly, French President Emmanuel Macron is already negotiating with European heads of state and government to position Draghi against von der Leyen.
Von der Leyen is the leading candidate of the European People's Party, which also includes the CDU and CSU, in the European elections. For a second term she must be proposed by the European Council and elected by the European Parliament. The proposal itself is the first hurdle: the EPP alone cannot achieve the necessary majority in the Council of European Heads of Government. In the EU Parliament, even if the election results are good, the EPP will be dependent on other groups. A similar situation five years ago led to von der Leyen becoming Commission President – and not the CSU politician Manfred Weber, who was the EPP's top candidate at the time.
Draghi is silent, Meloni speaks
Since everything is actually open, there are other names circulating for the office besides Draghi. For example that of Roberta Metsola. The politician from Malta is the chairwoman of the European Parliament and, like von der Leyen, is a member of the EPP.
At the end of April, the “Handelsblatt” also named Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and French Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton as possible candidates. Plenković's party is also part of the EPP, Breton was formerly a member of the French Conservatives, but has been independent for several years. Above all, Breton is no friend of the current Commission President.
And what is Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank and former Prime Minister of Italy, doing? He does what he always does when it comes to speculation that concerns him: he stays silent. His successor, Prime Minister Meloni, thinks otherwise. When asked what she thought of Draghi as EU Commission President, she said in front of cameras a few weeks ago: “Mario Draghi is a very esteemed person and I am happy that people are talking about an Italian. But I would like to point this out, although It may sound banal that this whole debate is pure philosophy (…) and is solely due to the election campaign.” She refuses to play this game. A decision can only be made after the election results.
First Meloni wooed von der Leyen, now it's the other way around
The latter is true. Another question is whether Meloni values him: Draghi is not a candidate who is politically close to her party, the post-fascist “Brothers of Italy.” However, after taking office in October 2022, she certainly followed in Draghi's footsteps at the European level. In Brussels she wanted and had to convince the skeptics that she could do politics with her.
This also explains her carefully maintained relationship with von der Leyen until recently. Whether it was about Ukraine, migrants or natural disasters: whenever the need arose, Meloni had the President of the EU Commission at her side.
However, since the polls have consistently suggested that the parties from the right-wing factions in the European Parliament could make significant gains, the balance of power has changed. Now it is von der Leyen who is courting Meloni. Von der Leyen was recently heard saying during an election campaign debate between the EU's top candidates that she had worked well with Meloni. In addition, the Italian Prime Minister is for Europe, against Putin and for the rule of law. “And if it stays that way, then we'll offer to work together.”
PES rejects alliance with Meloni
While EPP leader Manfred Weber welcomed this announcement, the European Social Democrats (PES), including Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Italian PD leader Elly Schlein, clearly spoke out against cooperation with parties from the right-wing factions. The Social Democrats have made it clear that they will not elect a Commission president who is dependent on votes from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group – of which Meloni is also a member.
Although there are no formal coalitions at EU level, majorities still have to be forged again and again. And since both the EPP and PES are likely to lose seats in the European elections, the next legislative period will require even more ability to compromise.
In such a situation, Draghi could be the laughing third party that Macron pulls out of the hat – independent, and neither an EPP member nor a Social Democrat. Macron's Renaissance party belongs to the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, currently the third largest group.
Nevertheless, a Commission President Draghi is possible, but rather unlikely. Nobody disputes that he is highly respected internationally. Von der Leyen himself commissioned him in September to write a report on the EU's competitiveness. The report will be published after the election.
But even his own government would probably vote against him if in doubt. Meloni likes to emphasize that Draghi also believes that the EU needs to be reformed from top to bottom. But the two understand something fundamentally different about EU reform. Draghi advocates rapid integration, Meloni wants more state independence. Despite all the feigned joy at “the fact that people are talking about an Italian.” That doesn't add up.
