ntv invites party leaders to showdown
The federal election campaign begins on Sunday evening
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The European election campaign is over, long live the federal election campaign. As soon as the future composition of the European Parliament is clarified, the focus will be on the next national election. The leaders of the six most important parties will have to classify their European election results in this sense on ntv.
Olaf Scholz looks seriously at the voters, Friedrich Merz smiles at them, while Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock present themselves to the people while they go about their work: All over the country, the large campaign posters with the well-known top politicians point to the federal election that is not due until next year. On Sunday, however, the focus is on the composition of the European Parliament, which is why the SPD, CDU and Greens also put their respective top candidates in the picture: Katarina Barley, Ursula von der Leyen and Terry Reintke. The three parties' flagships, however, are their best-known federal politicians. The performance of the German parties on Sunday evening is much more than just a hint of the federal election scheduled for September 2025.
The battle for the chancellorship is now in full swing. ntv has therefore invited the leaders of the six major parties to a round of party leaders. On Sunday evening at 8:15 p.m., CDU leader Friedrich Merz, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil, Green Party leader Omid Nouripour, Federal Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner, AfD federal spokeswoman Alice Weidel and Sahra Wagenknecht from the alliance of the same name will discuss the issue. In addition to the TV station, ntv.de and RTL+ will also broadcast the program, moderated by Nikolaus Blome, head of the RTL/ntv politics department, as a live stream. All invited guests are likely to be eagerly awaiting the first forecasts and projections of the election results.
Lars Klingbeil, for example, who leads the SPD together with Saskia Esken, is likely to be sweating. If things go badly for them, the chancellor's party could only end up in fourth place with a result of around 14 percent. The debates about Scholz's renewed candidacy for chancellor, which have so far been cautious, would inevitably gain momentum. All the more so if the party gets into a downward spiral, is thrown out of one or both state parliaments in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1st and finally Dietmar Woidke is voted out as Brandenburg's prime minister on September 22nd. With Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the SPD has by far the most popular federal politician as an alternative to Scholz.
Merz's next milestone
CDU chairman and Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz can drive to the RTL/ntv capital studio with less worry: According to all relevant surveys, the CDU and CSU together have a result of around 30 percent. The Union has also deliberately declared the European elections as a vote on the unpopular traffic light government at the federal level. A result with a three in front would be another milestone on Merz's path to his party's candidacy for chancellor after the party has completed its program process.
The Union wants to clarify its most important personnel issue only after the state elections. Unlike before the last federal election, this time the decision should be made as calmly and unanimously as possible. Only a weak performance by the Union in the European and state elections would give potential Merz competitors a reason to rebel.
Greens between hope and fear
On the other hand, there is more than just a glimmer of hope among the Greens: After months of enormous loss of popularity and sometimes rude attacks against individual party representatives, the Greens could sensationally become the second strongest force behind the Union – as they did in 2019. Back then, at the height of the Fridays for Future protests, the Greens achieved a record result of 20.5 percent and only had to line up just behind the Union. This time, a result of 16 percent would possibly be enough to land ahead of the AfD and SPD.
Because the party's core clientele traditionally participates actively in the European elections, there is a chance of a better result than the Greens would achieve in a federal election, according to the poll. If the Greens still receive 13 to 14 percent, as in the Sunday poll results, they would be one of the big losers in the election. In view of the difficult state elections in the east, the federal election campaign is likely to get off to a very difficult start.
Lindner vacates the limelight
With Christian Lindner, a key member of the federal cabinet is also sitting in the ntv round, because the FDP leader is also the Federal Minister of Finance. Unlike his cabinet colleagues from the SPD and the Greens, the most prominent FDP minister is not part of the FDP's European election campaign. The party is relying entirely on the popularity of its controversial top candidate, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. Lindner's advantage: With the election, his often inconvenient colleague is definitely saying goodbye to Brussels. A weak election result would also go home with her.
Lindner will still have to explain in the ntv studio why his party is likely to fall below the five percent mark. And how does he intend to avoid being kicked out of the Bundestag? He could announce more “pure FDP” in the traffic light coalition on the evening of the European elections. But a faltering FDP would also become a problem for the SPD and the Greens. In the hot phase of the highly complex budget negotiations that is now beginning, all those involved need more willingness to compromise, not less.
Weidel arrives in crisis mode
But there is always someone who has it harder than you. Lindner could simply give Alice Weidel a little more space to talk about her AfD. The far-right party could still become the second strongest force or come fourth behind the SPD and the Greens. In any case, the result will be far below the poll results from December, when the AfD was at up to 23 percent in the national trend. Then came the collapse: scandals surrounding top candidate Maximilian Krah, the bribery allegations against Petr Bystron, who is second on the AfD list, reports about various cross-connections between the party and right-wing extremist activists, the court-confirmed surveillance by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution and the Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke, who was convicted of intentionally using a National Socialist slogan.
If the AfD still comes in second, Weidel can point to the unshaken popularity of her party. The AfD does indeed have a solid electorate that seems to remain loyal to it despite all the scandals and warnings. But in recent months Weidel has flirted with the idea of becoming her party's candidate for chancellor. If the AfD now fails with European election candidates expressly supported by the federal executive board, a new leadership debate will blossom. Intrigues by rebellious forces have long been underway.
A bitter Wagenknecht triumph for the Left
Wagenknecht could certainly advise Weidel, at least in theory: after all, she knows how to lead a rebellion within the party. The European election Sunday will probably be Wagenknecht's next triumph, after the successful spin-off of her own party from the Left. According to the research group Wahlen, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance could get 7 percent nationwide on Sunday, while the Left could only get 3 percent. The PDS successor party is stumbling towards insignificance, while Wagenknecht, who is reviled by many Left politicians, is succeeding.
What is particularly bitter for the Left is that the BSW is becoming the strongest force in the East after the AfD and CDU. The Left is thus losing its former stronghold and power base. Because the party has recently regularly ranked at three percent or less in the national trend, its chairmen Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan have not been invited to the talk special on ntv. But with the TV station, ntv.de and RTL+ they have three options to watch.
