In the European elections on Sunday, young people aged 16 and over will be allowed to vote for the first time in Germany. This could play into the hands of right-wing populist parties, even if the young people are not at all populist.
At 16, you can buy alcohol, get a prescription for the pill and vote. In most federal states, 16-year-olds are allowed to take part in local elections, and in some, in state elections. And on Sunday, German teenagers will be allowed to take part in the European elections for the first time.
At the end of 2022, on the initiative of the traffic light coalition, the Bundestag passed the law to lower the voting age in European elections, against the votes of the CDU and AfD. The aim: young people should be able to participate more politically and take on more responsibility. This regulation also applies in a few other European countries: in Austria, Belgium and Malta, 16-year-olds are also allowed to vote, and in Greece, participation in the European elections is possible from the age of 17.
You often hear the argument that young people are not yet mature enough to vote. The German Teachers' Association, for example, sees it that way. Thomas König disagrees: “Why shouldn't they vote?” asks the professor of political science and European politics at the University of Mannheim in the ntv podcast “Wieder was lernen”. The question of whether one is mature enough for something can also be asked of adults. “It has something to do with whether one has a certain amount of background knowledge to be able to make a choice at all. And young people certainly have that just as much as some older people.”
Controversial polls on right-wing shift among young people
A study by developmental psychologist Anna Lang from the University of Erfurt found that 16- and 17-year-olds are capable of making good voting decisions. Politically, young people of this age are also mature enough to vote: There are no significant differences in political interest or knowledge between adult and minor young people, as found by political scientist Arndt Leininger from the Chemnitz University of Technology.
There have been discussions in recent months about who Generation Z might vote for. The much-discussed 2024 Youth Study speaks of a clear shift to the right in the young population. According to the study, more young people are leaning towards the AfD than before. The big losers are the traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP. The study results are highly controversial, however, because the data was collected via an online panel.
A survey by the Forsa opinion research institute shows a completely different picture: The Greens and the CDU/CSU are ahead among young people. The AfD only gets 14 percent. König classifies all opinion polls of this kind as superficial from a scientific point of view. “Opinion polls are very good at exploring opinions. But they can't really say that there is a cause-and-effect relationship. It's a kind of accident report. It's entertainment, not science.”
Young voters support populist parties
So how right or left are young people really? Young voters with voting experience are more likely to vote for a populist party, the political scientist found in a Europe-wide study. “It shows that young voters who have already voted vote more extreme, that is, they support more populist parties than first-time voters,” explains König. “Young voters do not yet have a solid political image. Compared to older voters, they are more flexible and sometimes more extreme in their voting. They have a wider emotional spectrum.”
The conclusion of the study: Lowering the voting age does not help prevent the rise of right-wing populist parties. This is different from what politicians had imagined when they passed the law to lower the voting age.
Young people are not necessarily populist when they vote for such parties. Nevertheless, they tend to support populist parties more, says König. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, because young people are tempted to take extreme emotional actions. Even if they are disappointed with the current political situation in Germany, “they tend to vote for extreme parties, be it the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance or the AfD. This is less the case with older voters.”
König cites a confusing election campaign as a third reason. “In Germany, posters are being used to advertise Chancellor Scholz, who is not even running for election.”
Right-wing populists far ahead on Tiktok
Social media also plays a major role: the AfD is much more present there than the other parties. On Instagram, Tiktok, YouTube, etc., the right-wing populists have the most followers compared to the other parties in the Bundestag, a total of almost 2.7 million – as of February. The Greens have around 1.4 million fans, the SPD around 1.3 million.
The AfD has a particularly large reach on Tiktok. The party used the short video platform to reach people much earlier than the other parties and their politicians. Economics Minister Robert Habeck has only recently had an account, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz and FDP top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann have not been on the platform for long either.
The problem for Tiktok newbies: They can hardly do anything against it because they haven't yet understood the game. Tiktok is about attention, and this is gained through emotions: fear, love or hate, the expert knows. “Katarina Barley or Olaf Scholz are trying to use Tiktok to educate people about factual issues. They would have to adopt a completely different language and choose different descriptions in order to be able to counter it, to be able to build up a different emotionality.”
Young topics are missing
The AfD works successfully on Tiktok with emotional messages. The party speaks directly to young men, like top candidate Maximilian Krah with his Tiktok video “Real men are right”. European politics has little appeal to young people in Europe, according to the youth study by the TUI Foundation. The opinion research institute Yougov surveyed 16 to 26 year olds in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Poland. Not even one in five feels strongly or very strongly represented by the European Parliament.
The Federal Youth Council warns that the AfD could exploit the disappointments and insecurities of young people. And believes that the democratic parties need to appeal better to 16 and 17 year olds.
Political scientist König misses the European issues before the European elections. “There are so many sensible proposals on the table, none of which are being discussed. That worries me because people underestimate the fact that voters and young people don't notice. Such striking things like peace, prosperity or justice are self-evident. I don't have to vote for them.”
Right-wing parties are ahead in polls
However, the younger generation in Germany is more pro-European than the older generation. This was recently revealed by a Bertelsmann study. The willingness to vote, however, is rather low: just under 60 percent of those under 25 want to vote on Sunday.
Polls suggest a shift to the right in the European elections. In France, Italy and Austria, the far-right parties are in the lead, while in German polls the AfD is tied with the Greens in second place.
The lower voting age in Germany may become a problem for those who had high hopes for it. The traffic light coalition may thus strengthen the parties that voted against it – including the AfD.
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